The Big ShortDVD - 2016
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Deeb: Dr. Burry?
Deeb: Deeb Winston, Goldman Sachs. Listen, I've been reviewing your position. I wanted to discuss your marks and make sure they're fair.
Burry: Yeah, I think you mean that you've secured a net short position yourselves. So you're free to mark my swaps accurately for once because it's now in your interest to do so.
Deeb: I'm not sure what you want me to say.
Burry: I think that...I think that you've already said it.
Jamie: Casey, right now every bank in town is unloading these shit bonds onto unsuspecting customers. And they won't devalue them until they get them off their books. This level of criminality is unprecedented, even on fxxking Wall Street.
Casey: Jamie... And this is me being honest here, okay? It took me years to build my relationships on Wall Street. No bank or ratings agency is going to confirm a story like this just because it comes from two guys in a... Sorry, garage band hedge fundthat thinks it's the apocalypse.
Selena Gomez: Okay. So here's how a synthetic CDO works.Let's say I bet $10 million on a blackjack hand. $10 million because this hand is meant to represent a single mortgage bond.
Dr. Richard Thaler: Okay, Selena has a pretty good hand here, showing 18. Dealer showing seven. That's a really good hand for Selena. Good odds. In fact, her chances of winning this hand are 87%. So, my odds are good. I'm on a winning streak. Everybody in this place wants to get in on the action. How could I lose, right? Now, this is a classic error. In basketball it's called
the Hot Hand Fallacy. A player makes a bunch of shots in a row. People are sure they're gonna
make the next one. People think that whatever's happening now is gonna continue to happen
into the future. During the real estate boom, markets were going up and up and people thought
they would never go down. So people who are watching and think that I won't lose will make a side bet. Now, this is the first synthetic CDO.
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